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SF Home Listings, Sold vs. Expired & Withdrawn: over the past 4 weeks, for every 10 home listings that closed escrow, almost 9 listings expired or were withdrawn from the market (typically due to being considered overpriced by the market). Even with relatively strong buyer demand, pricing, preparation and marketing are critical.
Percentage of SF Home Listings Accepting Offers by Week: climbing with the increased number of accepted offers and reduced number of new listings
Besides the values pertinent to different neighborhoods, house sizes often vary enormously between neighborhoods. Average house size in Pacific Heights and St. Francis Wood is much larger than that of Noe Valley, which is larger than that of Miraloma Park. Median price is a general statistic — half the homes sold for more and half for less — which can fluctuate for a variety of reasons.
Large, sudden changes in median price should be distrusted as indicators of changes in market values, especially when the number of sales is low.
The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It is a statistical generality which ignores many important factors, and may fluctuate even in times of stable values. Median sales price can be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes in buying trends, as well as by changes in market values.
Median sales prices and changes in median price are not necessarily relevant to any particular home. For a specific property, only a specific comparative market analysis will truly be pertinent.
Different neighborhoods may vary widely in the average size of 3-BR houses and 2-BR condos on a square footage basis, as well as exhibiting radically different styles, qualities and eras of construction. Some neighborhoods have a much greater quantity of sales and/or may be impacted by large new-development sales. The data herein is from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and subject to errors, omissions or revisions and not warranted.
Case-Shiller, the most respected index of home values, just released their July report, which showed continued improvement of home values (though still down significantly from peak values):
New York, September 29, 2009 – Data through July 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately six months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 12.8% and 13.3%, respectively, in July compared to the same month last year. All 20 metro areas also showed an improvement in the annual rates of decline, with July’s readings compared to June.
“The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two composites and all metro areas are showing an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, the 10-City and 20-City Composites and 18 of the 20 metros areas increased in July. In addition, both Composites and 13 of the MSA have had at least three consecutive months of positive prints. These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.” [Read More!]
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