Posts Tagged ‘market update’

Top 10 most expensive real estate markets in the US: Bay Area on the list, again and again

If all we listened to were Meg Whitman, Jerry Brown, and Governor Schwarzenegger, we might forget that actually, California is still a very rich state. In fact, according to a 2010 Coldwell Banker 2010 survey, this state commands five of the top ten priciest real estate markets in the nation– and the Bay Area takes second and fourth place.

The survey data for “The Home Listing Report” (HLR) provide the average home listing price for four-bedroom, two-bathroom properties on coldwellbanker.com listed between February and August 2010 from nearly 300 U.S. markets. Markets in the HLR had to have at least six properties fitting the above description listed within the relevant time frame.

The HLR found The U.S. average for the surveyed listings was $353,032. But we all know about averages: the average number of legs of a man and a horse is three, yet neither creature has three legs. The same misrepresentation applies in the case of the American average listing, because Coldwell Banker found a $1.7 million difference between the nation’s most expensive and most affordable housing markets. As illustration: Newport Beach, CA, led the list with an average home listing price of $1,826,348. Meanwhile, our most affordable market was Detroit, Mich., with an average listing price of $68,007….Read More (via SF Gate)

Real Estate Outlook: Consumer Confidence

After a few weeks in August where the economic and housing outlooks have been a little sobering – even grim – the numbers at the beginning of September are looking increasingly positive.

Take consumer confidence. We all know how important that is for economic activity and future housing sales. Well, the latest survey from the University of Michigan came in with a one point jump in overall confidence, after months of declines.

That may sound modest, and it is, but after so many bad headlines about the economy, it’s a step in the right direction.

And indeed, the latest Commerce Department study finds that consumer spending is on the upswing, and just registered the biggest pickup in four months.

Meanwhile, there was surprisingly strong news from the industrial manufacturing front, which is a key factor for future employment growth: The Institute for Supply Management reported a one point gain in its manufacturing index for the latest month – which was enough of a shock to doom-and-gloom analysts on Wall Street that the stock market soared on the news.

On the housing front there were even more encouraging numbers:

  1. Pending home sales , which had been sliding since the phase-out of the tax credits last spring, rose by 5.2 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors.
  2. Also, the Standard and Poor’s /Case-Shiller index reported that home prices in the top 20 metropolitan areas gained 4.2 percent year over year. Prices were up in 15 of the 20, including some big gains in California and elsewhere.

San Francisco prices rose by 14 percent for the year, San Diego by 11 percent. Minneapolis prices jumped 11 percent and Washington DC houses were up by 7 percent…Read More.

How mortgage market has tightened

Arthur Brito has given up on the idea of buying a house because the qualifying process is so difficult for self-employed people like him. Credit: Kirsten Aguilar / The Chronicle

September 12, 2010|By Robert Selna and Carolyn Said, Chronicle Staff Writers

In 2006, Arthur Brito, a self-employed Bay Area landscape designer, and his wife were prequalified for a $625,000 home loan. After being priced out of the housing market by inflated values, they started looking again last year, but quickly learned that the mortgage crisis had changed their fortunes: They now qualified for a loan of only $280,000.

Brito’s experience illustrates how residential lending practices have shifted dramatically, from a market where high-risk buyers got loans far exceeding their ability to pay to one in which borrowers who are employed and have good credit and a healthy down payment may be out of luck.

“Financially, we are the same people as we were in 2006, so it’s pretty frustrating,” said Brito, 33. “Our incomes haven’t changed, but the rules have changed, so we don’t really talk about buying houses anymore. We’ve shelved it.”

Like Brito, many borrowers are suffering a housing loan hangover precipitated by historically lax lending standards.

In 2006, chicanery driven by avarice infected the mortgage industry food chain: Some mortgage brokers pushed risky loans, borrowers lied about their income, appraisers inflated home values, lenders originated shaky mortgages, Wall Street firms bundled them as securities and sold them, and ratings firms characterized them as safe investments.

At the center of this distorted world was the subprime loan, issued at a high interest rate to borrowers with tarnished credit, checkered employment history and little or no money in the bank. Wall Street firms such as Lehman Bros. traded in the lucrative high-interest loans, which yielded quick profits for brokers who sold them and lenders that originated them.

By 2005, the subprime market was $630 billion a year and growing – triple the $210 billion market in 2002.

Mortgage-backed securities create the liquidity that allow banks to originate mortgages, so they are not going away, but in many respects real estate lending has returned to its more traditional and conservative standards.

Higher standards

Borrowers generally need good credit, relatively large down payments, stable employment and a high percentage of income to debt to get a home loan. Dubious mortgages – with no money down, no documentation of income, adjustable rates that skyrocket after an introductory period – have largely gone by the wayside.

“The bottom line is that we have had a complete reboot of the mortgage lending system in this country,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH Associates, a leading publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information…Read More.

In Defense of Home Ownership

Richard Termine for The New York Times

By RON LIEBER

Published: August 27, 2010

It’s hard to read the headlines and not conclude that becoming a homeowner is a terrible idea.

This week, the National Association of Realtors announced that existing-home sales in July had fallen an astounding 25.5 percent from the previous year. Sure, there was a federal tax credit in place last summer. But with single-family home sales at their lowest level since 1995 and unemployment still stubbornly high, home prices may fall further.

In the meantime, millions of homeowners are still far underwater, and government programs to help them have fallen well short of their goals. More foreclosures are coming, casting a deeper shadow over home prices. So it’s hardly surprising that the conventional wisdom says that home values will never again rise faster than inflation.

But as with stocks and the weather, it is dangerous to assume any certainty in the housing market. And by wallowing too much in the misery of others, people looking for a new place to live run the risk of thinking every home purchase will end in regret, at least financially.

Many still could, if they buy in hard-hit areas where prices could fall further…Read More.

Economic Barometer – June 2010

Discussion
June’s unemployment rate in San Francisco was 9.6% in June, unchanged from the previous June. While this marks an improvement over the double-digit unemployment seen earlier in the year, and San Francisco is still relatively strong relative to the rest of the state, the stubbornly high rate reflects the weak, unsustained job recovery to date. Overall employment growth in the 3-County Metro Division stalled in May and June. After a few months of positive news on the job creation front, June’s jobs total for the Metro Division was the lowest since 1995.
What recovery we have seen in San Francisco has been uneven and inconsistent. Despite continuing strength in airport traffic, the recovery in the hotel sector has been uneven. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, there has been essentially no change in occupancy or average daily rates since last fall. Our indicators of retail traffic–parking garage use and Saturday BART visitors to Powell Street, show continuing weakness and are still at or near their low points of the recession.
Like the job market, San Francisco housing prices had been on the upswing for most of the year, but May brought a sharp reversal, and June only a limited rise. While average sales price is a highly imperfect measure of trends in the market, the two months have ended a positive trend. Apartment rents tell a different story; average rents have risen 12% since January and the rise has been continuous. Average rents are still 15% below their peak in September, 2008, however.
Sources:
[1] – California Employment Development Department. MD refers to the San Francisco Metropolitan Division: San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties.
[2] – Bureau of Labor Statistics
[3] – San Francisco Human Services Agency
[4] – DataQuick
[5] – Craigslist
[6] – San Francisco International Airport
[7] – PKF Consulting
[8] – San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency
[9] – Bay Area Rapid Transit
For more information contact Ted Egan, Chief Economist at 415-554-5268, or Kurt Fuchs, Senior Economist, at 415-554-5369.
If you would like to receive this report every month, please e-mail your request to Debbie Toy in the Controller’s Office: debbie.toy@sfgov.org

Still catering to buyers in Marin

It’s pretty much a buyer’s market at the moment no matter where you go. Some areas of the Bay Area are less distressed than others; while they have seen price declines, they have not experienced a complete free fall in prices. Over the Golden Gate Bridge, Marin County is lucky to be one of those regions where the real estate market has and still continues to be corrected, but prices never got completely pummeled.

The county’s local paper, the Marin Independent Journal, writes that Marin is still a buyer’s market, though like every county, the market is very specific, depending on the city and community. Belvedere, one of the priciest communities in the Bay Area, if not the country, is having a tough time getting homes to change hands, where only 4% of the 48 homes that are listed are in contract. Like many high end towns with multi-million dollar houses, these palatial estates are sitting on the market longer and longer…Read more.

Federal foreclosure prevention program is struggling

Kevork Djansezian, Getty Images

August 21, 2010|By Jim Puzzanghera, Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Washington — Just as the housing market recovery has stalled, so has the Obama administration’s main program to ease home foreclosures.

Only 36,695 homeowners received permanently lowered mortgage payments in July through the much-criticized Home Affordable Modification Program, the smallest increase since December, administration officials said Friday.

And the number of people dropping out of the program continued to soar. Overall, nearly half the homeowners who entered the program since it launched in March of last year have dropped out.

Many had hoped the $75-billion program would be a silver bullet to the foreclosure problem, but it’s turned out to be a dud, said independent banking analyst Bert Ely. That’s not surprising, he said, given the depth of the housing market crash and recession, combined with a slow recovery.

“Even with a substantial reduction in mortgage payment and even some reduction in principal, you still have people who are over their head financially because of their reduced financial circumstances,” Ely said. “Isn’t it time to just rethink this whole business of modification … and let the market clear through foreclosures and short sales?”

The Los Angeles-Orange County area continued to have the most active trial and permanent modifications under the program, with 44,617 total modifications in July, or 6.6% of the national total. But that was down from 48,846 total modifications in June…Read more.

Essay writing skills a new mortgage requirement?

Earlier this week, a New York Times blog on personal finance wrote about the interesting (and somewhat odd) mortgage application process experienced by Linda Falcao and her husband. Seeking a mortgage through our Bay Area based Wells Fargo, the couple was asked to provide additional color and details about themselves and the home they wanted to purchase, through penning a “motivational letter.” In the real estate heyday, when sellers got multiple offers, it was not unusual for a bidder to craft a letter chronicling how much they loved the property, how excited they would be to see their kids grow up in the house, how well they would care for the place, etc. in hopes that they would be the winning buyer.

However, what was odd about the request was the information Wells Fargo was looking for.

Besides asking for information about their family plans, which was paired with questions about plans to change the “property size,” Wells Fargo also requested that the letter include information that supported the fact that the property, in Glen Mills, Pa., would be their primary residence. The bank also asked them to include their commuting distances to work, as well as other properties that they may own in the area. The request for the so-called motivational letter was included in the bank’s mortgage commitment letter, which offered to approve their loan if they answered the bank’s questions and provided other documentation.

As the blog notes and as one can tell, some of the questions are reasonable but some are crossing the legal line.

[B]asing a loan decision on a borrower’s family status or future plans is…against the law. It violates the Fair Housing Act,… which prohibits discrimination in lending based on disability, sex or family status – including pregnancy or having children in the family.

This blog brought up memories about my own recent mortgage approval process just a couple of months ago. Last spring, when I was laid off after my maternity leave, I enjoyed the subsidized time off with my newborn before taking on another full-time role. In our application process, our mortgage broker asked me to write a statement explaining my brief absence from the grind. I first wrote a straightforward two sentence statement saying I was laid off but went back to work in the beginning of the year. He came back and suggested that the statement be longer, provide more color and personal details…Read more.

New Online Help From Fannie Mae

By BOB TEDESCHI

SINCE foreclosures started to rise sharply in 2007, struggling borrowers have been offered a lot of help online. Some is well-meaning, but some is simply a scam in the form of expensive “debt relief” services that may be offered free elsewhere.

This month Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored entity that helps set lending standards for most mortgages, started a Web site,KnowYourOptions.com, that has elements setting it apart from most of those aiming to prevent foreclosure. Everything on the site is available in Spanish or English, for example, which helps to reach the large number of Hispanic borrowers who mortgage executives and analysts said were the targets of subprime lenders in 2005 and 2006.

In some areas of the site, a guide offers videotaped explanations of what users might accomplish in that section. For instance, in a section titled “Take Action,” the spokeswoman advises among other things that “you can’t get help until you contact your mortgage company,” while explaining how to get started.

To encourage borrowers to take that step, the site includes video testimonials from people who have experienced similar issues. A section on forbearance, for instance, features a video from an owner who qualified for such help, and one from a housing counselor about the process…Read more.

A new normal for real estate?

The bad news continues to get worse. With existing home sales experiencing a record decline and dropping way beyond what all economists expected, who knows when the housing market will recover, if ever. Everyone, from politicians and government officials to underwater homeowners and developers, are desperately following every bit of real estate data that comes out, looking for any signs that point to a brighter future.

Many experts say that real estate will not get better until unemployment improves. However, some economists also say that a higher than average unemployment rate may be the new normal. It will not be above 10%, like it is currently, but it may never get back down to the average of 5%. If that is the case, could the current deflating, stagnant housing market be real estate’s new normal?

The housing crisis has already unveiled a new shift in thinking for most Americans. For our parents generation and all the generations before, buying a home was a solid, nearly guaranteed investment. Working and saving wasn’t the way most built a nest egg or acquired wealth; it was through owning a home and the appreciation that came along with it. This was one of the hallmarks of what has been the federal government’s housing policy on promoting home ownership. Being a homeowner most often meant building wealth. And what politician didn’t like seeing their constituents happy and satisfied as they saw their net worth grown?

New York Times article highlights this new outlook, saying that real estate as our parents knew it is gone. No longer is buying a house the sure fire way to build wealth.

[M]any real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg.The wealth generated by housing in those decades…powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming.

More than likely, that era is gone for good.

Read more