Which San Francisco neighborhoods have the most sales? To determine where the most turnover was and how the market has changed since the peak, we took a look at the sales of single unit properties (single family homes and individual condominiums) in select San Francisco real estate districts, including Districts 4,5,7,8,9 (see this map for reference: http://www.sfrealtors.com/dw_sfarmls_map.html)
- District 4: Twin Peaks West (St. Francis Wood & surroundings, including Miraloma Park & Forest Hill)
- District 5: Central (Noe Valley, Castro, Inner Mission)
- District 7: North (Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina)
- District 8: North East (Russian Hill)
- District 9: Central East (SOMA including Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights, & South Beach)
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As shown by the above graph, we can see that the number of properties sold overall bottomed out in 2009, and recovered a little in 2010. If the 2011 year-to-date figures hold steady, volume will remain flat. Overall, we can estimate that the volume of transactions will remain 18% lower than five years ago. What can we learn from this?
San Francisco is more fortunate than Southern California and the rest of the country in that there are far fewer distressed properties for sale. How are people holding out? It seems that we are in a cash- and equity-rich environment, especially given the challenges in the mortgage financing arena. Also, many current owners are choosing to remodel and/or simply hold instead of trading up their property. We can tell this by looking at the number of withdrawn & expired listings for the same neighborhoods over the same time period, which has overall remained steady over the past three years. We can infer that the most desirable properties are being snapped up by cash buyers, but the rest are not receiving offers which current owners are willing to accept. Given how much prices rose, those owners in the middle of the market are choosing the hold and/or remodeling path instead rather than take a loss.
Most of the sales activity has taken place in District 5 and District 9. They are no longer alternative to neighborhoods to the north of market San Francisco. They are destinations demanding often demanding a higher price per square foot. District 5 appears to be more transitional in that the demographics are changing as people move out to follow jobs and schools. District 9 has become the focus of many first time buyers, second homes and also a great location for “empy-nesters” coming back to the city.
To learn more about trends in the SF real estate market, email us at Team@KatyDinner.com, or call our office at 415.863.5289.
