Archive for the ‘About San Francisco’ Category
Global Chaos vs. U.S. Inflation & Fed Data
As predicted, rates ended last week even after big volatility caused +/-.3% intraday rate swings. Following the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, mortgage bonds surprisingly weren’t Friday’s safety buy and instead sold (rates up) for four main reasons: (1) profit taking after bonds rallied huge Thursday (rates down) on a very successful 30yr Treasury auction, (2) higher inflation expectations in Friday’s weaker consumer sentiment reading, (3) Friday’s Middle East protests were far less than expected, dashing fears of Libyan violence spreading, and (4) speculation that Japanese insurers may sell U.S. bonds for recovery funds.
Factors 3 and 4 need to play out further next week, as does today’s news that European Union leaders have upped their bailout fund to $611b to buy new bonds from member countries. Existing bonds are exempt. So the plan gives debt-strapped countries help raising money, but doesn’t resolve the fundamental debt problem.
Given the instability in Japan, Libya/region, and Europe, we can’t expect the Fed to waver from zero-rate policy at Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. The next two meetings after that are April 27 and June 22, which is when we’re likely to see some shift in stance because they must acknowledge and provide some guidance about the June 30 end of their current campaign of buying $600-900b in Treasuries (QE2).
Then February business inflation (PPI) comes out Wednesday, consumer inflation (CPI) Thursday, and also a key manufacturing inflation report (Philly Fed) Thursday which is another economic growth and inflation indicator.
Far-reaching issues create another tricky market week coming, but rates will likely be net higher (on net mortgage selling) for three reasons: (1) perception that Europe’s debt crisis seems even slightly more contained, (2) less Middle East turmoil than expected, (3) higher U.S. inflation.
CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT
30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.5% (3.62% APR)
SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT
30 Year: 5.125% (5.24% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 4.0% (4.12% APR)
JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 POINT
30 Year: 5.25% (5.37% APR)
10/1 ARM: 4.875% (4.99%)
5/1 ARM: 4.0% (4.12% APR)
DAILY CONSUMER-FRIENDLY COMMENTARY
Full website: www.TheBasisPoint.com
Follow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thebasispoint
‘Like’ on Facebook: www.facebook.com/thebasispoint
Scenarios assume full doc pricing on single family home purchase loans for borrower with 740 FICO score or greater, at least 20% equity (unless FHA), and 6-12 months reserves left over after close (retirement assets counted at 60% of value for reserves). Better or worse rates apply to specific client profiles. Better rates are available using tax deductible points. ARM rates adjust the first month after initial fixed period shown, and once per year thereafter until year 30. Adjusted rate calculated by adding 2.25% margin to 1yr LIBOR index at time of adjustment. At first adjustment LIBOR+margin cannot exceed start rate+5%, subsequent yearly adjustments can never be greater than 2% per year, total of all adjustments for 30yr life of loan can never exceed start rate+5%. This is not a loan commitment nor a loan guarantee, rates based on loan amount ranges shown and rates available at the time of production. Rates subject to change without notice. California Department of Real Estate license #01376428. NMLS # 313803. Equal Housing Lender.
Julian D. Hebron
Vice President, Mortgage Consultant
RPM Mortgage
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
office: 415.701.2638
cell: 415.250.1050
eFax: 415.701.2688
About: www.rpm-mtg.com/julian
Blog: www.TheBasisPoint.com
DRE #01376428, NMLS #313803
Sweet Spot in the Center, 3139 California Street
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Spontaneity meets Serenity, Simplicity meets Sophistication
This two-bedroom top-floor Laurel Heights condo is an effortless entry into one of San Francisco’s most active neighborhoods, where history and culture seamlessly merge. From Sunday brunch next door to a bike ride in the Presidio to the myriad classes and performances at the Jewish Community Center, step out your door into what defines city living.
Modern on the inside, yet with an architectural outside that defines the city’s past, this home epitomizes the neighborhood. A living area with period detail leads to a gourmet kitchen. Bedrooms and the bath blend then and now with newer fixtures and preserved elements. A shared yard invites a summer celebration, or a simple Saturday.
Laurel Heights boasts several locally-grown businesses and restaurants one block north on Sacramento Street, where gourmet is everyday. Walk to some of the city’s finest cuisine, where cocktails are mixed with zeal and where coffee culture feeds the soul. Learn and grow at the JCC, where wellness and education is a mission for both body and mind. Spend weekends wandering the roads and trails that encompass the Presidio, a historic military outpost now part of the park system. Emerge to views of the Golden Gate Bridge, Crissy Field or the Exploratorium, where life comes alive through science.
A centralized location ideal for work in the nearby hospital district or downtown, your commute is minutes by foot or the 1 California, the bus outside your front door. Or, head north by car, as the Golden Gate Bridge is just minutes from your front door. You can be anywhere, any time from this California Street home, in a life spontaneous or serene, simple or sophisticated.
See the Sites of SF… From Your Rooftop! 250 Lombard #309j
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Chic 2 bedroom/2 Bath condominium at Telegraph Landing! The Master Suite boasts a bright full bath and a full wall of closets to accommodate your storage needs. Access your exclusive patio from the bedroom and dining area. Enjoy the luxury of a modern, recently remodeled kitchen, and indulge in the convenience of in-unit laundry. Amenities include 24-hour security, gym and sauna, deeded parking and storage. Large clubroom with full kitchen in the Telegraph Landing complex available for your next event!
Discover the energy around you as you explore one of San Francisco’s most treasured neighborhoods. Enjoy sporadic visits from your neighbors- the wild parrots of Telegraph Hill, as you take in the unobstructed panoramic views of the bay from the large common roof deck. Take advantage of this ideal location on the San Francisco Waterfront! Easy walk to the Financial District, North Beach and the Ferry Building Farmers Market.
Oil Wars & Retail Stores
Rates ended last week even, with 30yr fixed loans settling at 4.875% after a wild ride. Bond traders face tough choices right now: sell (rates rise) because rising oil and commodities are causing inflation? Or buy (rates drop) because bonds are a safe haven from turmoil in Libya?
The tough choices are compounded when Libyan turmoil is actually the reason for rising oil. Libyan rebels are currently winning a war for that country’s key oil fields, and even though Libya only produces 2% of global oil supply, the North Africa & Middle East region (see attached map) controls 35% of the world’s oil, and popular uprisings are spreading toward the Middle East, which controls 30% of that total. With this as a backdrop, let’s recap last week and preview next week.
Recap of Last Week: Feb 28-Mar 4
Last week began with a confirmation that consumer inflation remains flat but as the week pressed on, rates rose on three (1, 2, 3) monthly manufacturing surveys showed marked improvement along with continued business inflation due to rising oil and commodity prices. Rates also rose in anticipation of big February jobs growth, which was confirmed by Friday’s data showing +222k new private sector jobs vs. +50k in January. But rates dropped again Friday as violence in Libya (and no wage growth in the jobs report) outweighed surface-level jobs data.
Preview of Next Week: Mar 7-11
Next week may end up much like last week, with conflicting data causing massive rate volatility (.375% rate swings up or down), and ultimately ending even.
Two potentially higher-rate factors are: (1) bonds may sell on supply concerns as $66b in new Treasury securities will be auctioned into market as follows: $32b in 3yr notes Tuesday, $21b in 10yr notes Wednesday, and $13b in 30yr notes Thursday, and (2) February’s Retail Sales on Friday are expected to be +1%. Rates were flat on January’s +0.3% retail sales, so if it does jump to 1%, rates would jump too.
But bonds could remain a safe haven as geopolitical instability fears win out over oil-driven inflation fears. Ultimately inflation would cause U.S. rates to rise as U.S. bonds sell, but short-term, the bond bet is that higher oil threatens U.S. economic growth, so bond buying would pull rates down and offset the higher-rate factors above.
CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT
30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.5% (3.62% APR)
SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT
30 Year: 5.125% (5.24% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.875% (3.99% APR)
JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 POINT
30 Year: 5.375% (5.49% APR)
10/1 ARM: 5% (5.12%)
5/1 ARM: 4.0% (4.12% APR)
DAILY CONSUMER-FRIENDLY COMMENTARY
Full website: www.TheBasisPoint.com
Follow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thebasispoint
‘Like’ on Facebook: www.facebook.com/thebasispoint
Scenarios assume full doc pricing on single family home purchase loans for borrower with 740 FICO score or greater, at least 20% equity (unless FHA), and 6-12 months reserves left over after close (retirement assets counted at 60% of value for reserves). Better or worse rates apply to specific client profiles. Better rates are available using tax deductible points. ARM rates adjust the first month after initial fixed period shown, and once per year thereafter until year 30. Adjusted rate calculated by adding 2.25% margin to 1yr LIBOR index at time of adjustment. At first adjustment LIBOR+margin cannot exceed start rate+5%, subsequent yearly adjustments can never be greater than 2% per year, total of all adjustments for 30yr life of loan can never exceed start rate+5%. This is not a loan commitment nor a loan guarantee, rates based on loan amount ranges shown and rates available at the time of production. Rates subject to change without notice. California Department of Real Estate license #01376428. NMLS # 313803. Equal Housing Lender.
Dramatically Chic at 560 Haight Street #102
Pre-market Showing Available!
2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, $699,000
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Showing Schedule
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Nestled in the original envelope of The Riviera Theatre from the 1920′s, 560 Haight Street was reinvented by architect George Hauser in 2001 as The Theatre Lofts. Behind the elegant Art Deco styled facade you will find a gem among residential conversions, a chic urban living space in the true New York style. This home pairs high-end amenities with industrial bling in a full-service, full-flavor San Francisco neighborhood that is a home buyer’s haven. Conveniences galore.
Market Resumes Healthy Pace
February Issue of Market Focus Report Released
(Editor’s Note: Appearing below is the press release accompanying the Association’s Market Focus report for January. The report can be viewed by clicking on the link below the press release. A report is issued each month jointly by Rosen Consulting Group and the Association. The reports are intended to provide the media and REALTOR® members of the Association with monthly analyses of the state of the local economy and the housing and mortgage markets.
San Francisco Housing Market Resumes Healthy Pace
Home sales activity in San Francisco is returning to a healthy pace, according to the latest Market Focus report issued jointly by the Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®. Driven partially by all-cash buyers and improved affordability, the robust increase in pending sales activity seen in recent months indicates that an increase in property sales is on the horizon.
By some estimates, all-cash buyers represent 20-30 percent of homebuyers in the San Francisco market, resulting from more stringent mortgage lending practices, as well as a growing demand for investment opportunities as yields for many common investments remain unattractive.
Single-Family Sales Rise by 20.7 Percent Year-Over-Year in January 2011
Completed single-family home sales in San Francisco rebounded during the month of January by 20.7 percent. Year-over-year single-family home sales rose at a noticeably accelerated pace in Districts 2 (Central Sunset, Golden Gate Heights, Inner Parkside, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Outer Sunset, and Parkside)—72.2 percent and District 10 (Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood, Mission Terrace, Outer Mission, Portola, Silver Terrace, and Visitacion Valley)—46.7 percent where the median sales prices in January 2011 were $619,000 and $414,250, respectively. Pending single-family home sales also increased by an impressive 37.5 percent year-over-year in January 2010, leading the Rosen Consulting Group to believe that the upward trend observed in property sales should continue at least through the early part of 2011.
At the current pending sales rate, this equates to a 2.9 months of supply inventory. By price segment, the months of supply inventory for homes priced less than $700,000 remains narrow at 2.3 months, while homes within the $700,000 to $1.2 million price range had 3.6 months and the supply of homes priced greater than $1.2 million edged upwards slightly from January 2010 to 4.6 months.
Pending Condominium Sales Increased by 25 Percent Year-Over-Year
The number of condominium sales in January 2011 remained unchanged in comparison to January 2010, with 119 sales completed during the month. In large part, a result of the increase in the number of condominium sales in the higher-priced segments of the market, the median sales price increased by 7.3 percent year-over-year to $665,000 in January 2011. As for-sale inventory levels dropped by 1.3 percent to 753 units for sale, and as pending sales activity jumped by 24.8 percent to 186 units, the months of supply inventory contracted to 4.0 from 5.1 months in January 2010. While the months of supply inventory for condominiums priced greater than $900,000 increased to 6.6 months, the inventory for more moderately-priced condominiums units tightened to 2.9 months in the $500,000 to $900,000 segments and 2.5 months for condominiums priced less than $500,000.
Despite the continued volatility in housing market statistics, the elevated housing affordability rate makes today an excellent time to buy for a qualified, long-term homebuyer. As job growth accelerates and credit availability increases through 2011, demand will respond and drive a continued tightening in market conditions, which should result in a more robust recovery during the coming year.
-San Francisco Association of Realtors
Market Focus Group
Market Focus Press Release
Top 5 Priciest Places to Live = Best Investments!
It’s not cheap to own real estate in California, according to a recent article at CNNMoney.com, which reveals the five least affordable housing markets in the country. California cities snagged three of the top five spots.
Here are the top five least affordable housing markets, according to CNNMoney.com:
-Daily Real Estate News | February 22, 2011
1. New York City
Median home price: $425,000
Median income: $64,800
2. San Francisco
Median home price: $625,000
Median income: $96,800
3. Honolulu
Median home price: $450,000
Median income: $79,300
4. Santa Ana, Calif.
Median home price: $435,000
Median income: $86,100
5. Los Angeles
Median home price: $320,000
Median income: $62,100
Source: “Most (and Least) Affordable Cities to Buy a House,” CNNMoney.com (Feb. 19, 2011)
Read more:
Tutorpedia
Tutorpedia Foundation Silent Auction Item List – 6-9pm, 111 Minna, February 23, 2011
This fundraising event will feature a panel conversation focusing on the most effective ways to personalize education for our students.
The event will provide delicious hors d’oeuvres, deserts, no-host bar, silent auction, and raffle. All money raised at the event will go to providing free tutoring for low income students in the Bay Area.
“When it comes to academic success, there is nothing more effective than personalized, 1-on-1 tutoring. We pride ourselves on helping students not only do better in school, but also on becoming lifelong learners. Our tutors can work in all academic subjects, and at all grade and ability levels. Beyond academic tutoring, Tutorpedia also offers personalized tutoring for standardized tests such as the SAT, ACT, AP, SAT Subject Tests, CAHSEE, SSAT, HSPT, and even the GRE, LSAT, and GMAT.
We carefully match students of all ages and abilities with their own private tutor. Our tutors are well-versed in subject-specific content, and experienced in helping students with understanding of difficult material, test preparation, and overall development of study and organizational skills. Our tutors travel to your home each week based on a schedule that works for you and your child.
We have worked successfully with students from over 80 schools in the Bay Area, including Bellarmine, Bentley, Berkeley High, Bishop O’Dowd, College Prep, Crystal Springs, Drew, El Cerrito High School, Fremont High, Gunn, Harker, Lick-Wilmerding, Menlo School, Menlo-Atherton High, Mercy, MetWest Oakland, Miramonte High, Palo Alto High, Piedmont High, Sacred Heart Prep, San Mateo High, Serra High, St. Francis, St. Ignatius, Summit Prep, Urban, and Woodside Priory.”
Here are two inspiring articles from Tutorpedia.
Bill Gates as Batman!
Spike Lee as Teacher Advocate!
So you have a dream home in San Francisco… Now What? Who? When? Where? Why?
“As a homeowner in San Francisco, you have plenty of responsibilities — and, no doubt, a number of concerns, too. From property taxes to sidewalk repair, from legal obligations to house maintenance, and from taxes to utilities, you’ll want to be aware of your legal obligations and find out all you need to know to make your home, neighborhood and city the best they can be.
Maybe you’re confused about who’s responsible for repairing the fence between your neighbor’s backyard and your own. Or perhaps you’d like to remodel your bathroom but aren’t sure if you need a permit for the work.
SF Bay Window, your guide to homeownership in San Francisco, can provide you with the answers to your questions or point you in the direction of the source that can. From asbestos to water and sewer service, we’ll help you find the information you to need to improve and protect your most substantial investment.”
-San Francisco Association of REALTORS®.
