Archive for the ‘About San Francisco’ Category

Which SF Public School will your child attend in 2011-2012?

The next round of student placements will be in mail boxes soon.

Offers for the May Placement Period will be mailed out on May 13th.  You will be notified if an assignment can be offered to one of your amended choices. There will also be a final placement period in August.  Parents must submit an Amended Choice Form available on SFUSD’s Website for every placement period in which they would like to participate.

Important Dates:

  • May 13 May placement notification
  • May 16-31 Enroll: Register with SFUSD to accept placement offer. Submit amended choices, appeals and new applications for August placement period.
  • June 1 Open enrollment begins. Receive placement into schools with openings after May placement period.
  • August 1 (to be confirmed) August placement notification
  • August 12 Final August placement notification
  • August 15 (to be confirmed) First day of school

Beginning on June 1, any family may come to the Educational Placement Center, work with a placement counselor, and receive a placement immediately into a school with openings.

WeeklyBasis 5/7: Economy Today vs. 1 Year Ago

Rates set new 2011 lows last week after mortgage bonds rose a third straight week. Previous lows were set March 16 in the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake Libya’s revolution. New lows are the result of unstable economic growth, jobs and housing data. Bonds are a safe buy when uncertainty sets in, and rates drop when mortgage bond prices rise on “flight to safety” buying.

Below is a preview of next week’s reports on inflation, jobs, and consumer strength. And here’s a comparison of rates and economic factors today versus one year ago:

-U.S. unemployment was 9.9% May 2010 versus 9% today.

-U.S. economic growth was 3.2% (later revised down to 2.7%) versus 1.8% today (next revision may 26).

-Rates on May 7, 2010 were about .25% higher than rates on May 6, 2011.

-Greece riots tipped off a U.S. stock crash May 6, 2010, and today Greece still faces imminent debt default despite last year’s $158b bailout.

That last point will be a market theme early next week, and U.S. bonds and rates could benefit as investors seek alternatives to European debt.

Some upside rate risk will come from $72b in new Treasury securities being auctioned into markets as follows: $32b in 3yr Notes Tuesday, $24b in 10yr Notes Wednesday, and $16b in 30yr Bonds Thursday. New bond supply can rattle mortgage investors, causing them to sell which pushes rates up.

The accompanying graphic shows that Core inflation, measured by CPI for consumers and PPI for businesses, is under the Fed’s 2% comfort zone cap. Thursday and Friday will show us whether CPI and PPI will hold at non-inflationary levels. If they do, it’ll help stabilize rates.

Thursday’s weekly jobless claims will get special attention because they’ve spiked three straight Thursdays, and some fine print in Friday’s jobs report reflected this weakening jobs trend.

We’ll also get a read on consumer strength with April’s retail sales report Thursday.

Rates shouldn’t spike next week, but mortgage bonds have experienced a massive three-week rally, so profit taking as well as stable to better economic news may cause rates to rise slightly off extreme lows.

Julian D. Hebron
Vice President, Mortgage Consultant
RPM Mortgage
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
office: 415.701.2638
cell: 415.250.1050
eFax: 415.701.2688
About: www.rpm-mtg.com/julian
Blog: www.TheBasisPoint.com
DRE #01376428, NMLS #313803

Real Estate Values and School Success

Blog Ed100: 5.2 School Choice

By Jeff Camp
Education Circle Chair, Full Circle Fund

This is the second of a set of posts that relate, broadly, to the difficult question of how students and schools should be matched. This is a big topic, so I have attempted to break it up a bit.

The first post, “5.1 Where Do You Live?” confronted the reality that zip code is usually destiny, especially for those without many economic options. Middle class families, by contrast, have always enjoyed the benefits of school “choice.” If parents with the means are dissatisfied with the local school, they can move to a home within a district or attendance boundary of a school they prefer. Residential property values can be very sensitive to differences in school reputation. This fact is not lost on real estate professionals, who are attuned to the local rules for determining attendance “catchment” areas. Changes in those rules can have a direct impact on housing values.

Not all schools have rigid catchment areas, however. Some are designed to serve students from throughout a school district.

Magnet schools, for example, are designed to attract enrollment from throughout a district by offering something different and attractive – most commonly an unusually rigorous curriculum, or a curriculum oriented toward a particular interest such as art or science. The first magnet schools were established in high-poverty neighborhoods in the 1960s. After rapid initial growth, such schools settled to less than 3% of California enrollment by 2009.

The upcoming posts will overview many different approaches to changing the way that students are placed into schools. Post 5.3 will explore models of Selectivity. Post 5.4 will address both Continuation Schools and juvenile halls. Post 5.5 will reveal the tip of the Charter School iceberg. Post 5.6 will describe Private Schools. Home schooling will be addressed in post 5.12.

WeeklyBasis 4/16: Awesome Rates, FHA Fee Hike

Rates ended last week down .125% after mortgage bonds rallied huge Friday (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon +62 basis points) on tame March consumer inflation (CPI) data. Rates drop when bond prices rise on such a rally, and perception of low inflation encourages bond buying.

But that perception is likely to be short-lived because, as discussed last week, bonds are on inflation alert. In the meantime, borrowers have seen incredible rates this past week. Rates should hold reasonably to start next week, then rise a bit. Here’s why.

Friday’s giant bond rally came after March CPI was reported at .5%. But if you remove volatile food and energy costs, the “Core” reading came in at .1% which was below expectations of .2%. This Core figure is what the Fed studies, and as Fixed Income Advisor noted Friday (in a simple, short piece worth reading), the Fed has won “for now.”

Rate consumers win for now too, but you must proceed with caution because markets swing huge each day on conflicting data.

Friday’s CPI-driven bond buying mood was a continuation of Thursday’s reports of higher jobless claims and less-than-expected business inflation (PPI), both of which suggest a weaker economic picture.

But then Friday we also had the Fed’s April Empire State Manufacturing survey which showed 5 straight months of growth and the highest manufacturing activity—but also the highest inflation—in 1 year.

Next Thursday’s Philly Fed Index will likely show similar results for another key U.S. manufacturing region.

And the rest of next week is mostly focused on home sales with the homebuilder’s index Monday, March housing starts and building permits Tuesday, existing home sales Wednesday, and a Federal home price report Friday.

These numbers have been weak in recent months, which is why rates may hold to start the week, but then bond markets may start precautionary selling to prepare for a monster data week April 25-29 which includes:

First quarter GDP, a Fed meeting and press conference, PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation measure), Case Shiller home prices, new home sales, personal income/spending, and Chicago area manufacturing index.

FHA FEE HIKE ALERT: Also on Monday, April 18, the FHA is increasing its monthly mortgage insurance premiums by .25%. The table of the increases are below. All FHA borrowers need to talk to their advisors to understand what these changes mean for them.

CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT
30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.87% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.375% (3.49% APR)

SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT
30 Year: 5% (5.12% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.87% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.75% (3.87% APR)

JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 POINT
30 Year: 5.375% (5.49% APR)
10/1 ARM: 5% (5.12%)
5/1 ARM: 4.25% (4.37% APR)

Scenarios assume full doc pricing on single family home purchase loans for borrower with 740 FICO score or greater, at least 20% equity (unless FHA), and 6-12 months reserves left over after close (retirement assets counted at 60% of value for reserves). Better or worse rates apply to specific client profiles. Better rates are available using tax deductible points. ARM rates adjust the first month after initial fixed period shown, and once per year thereafter until year 30. Adjusted rate calculated by adding 2.25% margin to 1yr LIBOR index at time of adjustment. At first adjustment LIBOR+margin cannot exceed start rate+5%, subsequent yearly adjustments can never be greater than 2% per year, total of all adjustments for 30yr life of loan can never exceed start rate+5%. This is not a loan commitment nor a loan guarantee, rates based on loan amount ranges shown and rates available at the time of production. Rates subject to change without notice. California Department of Real Estate license #01376428. NMLS # 313803. Equal Housing Lender.

Julian D. Hebron
Vice President, Mortgage Consultant
RPM Mortgage
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
office: 415.701.2638
cell: 415.250.1050
eFax: 415.701.2688
About: www.rpm-mtg.com/julian
Blog: www.TheBasisPoint.com
DRE #01376428, NMLS #313803

WeeklyBasis 4/3/11: Pulp Fiction & The Fed

[Web view: http://www.thebasispoint.com/?p=8693]

We’ve had five weeks of net flat rates, but it hasn’t come without wild intraday swings of about +/-.25%. Daily swings matter because people enter into real estate transactions and must lock rates daily. And when rates move so much each day, nobody knows if upside swings will stick. Five-week hindsight makes it seem simple, but looking back means little.

Going forward, markets are focused on how the Fed will unwind 2007-2011′s unprecedented stimulus. Stocks and bonds are in tight technical ranges so breakouts up or down depend on information from the Fed, Japan, North Africa & Middle East, and Europe. This week’s economic calendar is light on data and heavy on Fed speeches, so below are notes to separate Fed fact from fiction.

There’s lots of talk about the June 30 end of QE2, a $600b Treasury security buying campaign by the Fed to help the economy with low business rates. But don’t forget that Quantitative Easing round one was a $1.25t mortgage bond buying campaign from January 2009 to March 2010 to prevent a housing implosion with low mortgage rates.

In a normal rate stimulus cycle, the Fed lowers overnight bank-to-bank and short term Fed-to-bank rates. But they did this from September 2007 to January 2009 with no effect on longer rates.

So QE was a way to get it done: print money to buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and rates down.

In so doing, they’ve become such a big market player some now say the Fed is in too deep. That private global investors will unload their mortgage and Treasury trades before the Fed, and the Fed’s dead.

It’s a simple and relevant theory. But where else do you invest in debt? Europe’s imploding. Emerging markets are overbought.

So is the Fed dead?

It’s reminiscent Quentin Tarantino’s epic Pulp Fiction where Butch (Bruce Willis) is compelled do the right thing by going into harm’s way to retrieve his family heirloom gold watch.

His honor makes him enter into utter chaos, and after the most insane crisis-induced decision making sequence imaginable, he returns to his lady on a Harley Davidson and the conversation goes like this:

Fabienne: Where’s my Honda?

Butch: I’m sorry baby, I had to crash that Honda.

Fabienne: Who’s motorcycle is this?

Butch: It’s a chopper, baby.

Fabienne: Who’s chopper is this?

Butch: It’s Zed’s.

Fabienne: Who’s Zed?

Butch: Zed’s dead, baby. Zed’s dead.

When relaying the complex matter to someone affected but not directly involved, Butch kept it simple: everything’s cool, now let’s keep moving.

That’s where we are now. Bernanke is Butch, and we’re Fabienne.

This isn’t Hollywood where clever writing makes heroes. But Bernanke is certainly a clever guy. He’s just made a very big bet … one that the honor of the U.S. economy depended upon during crisis.

Now we just have to see whether The Fed’s dead, or if we just keep moving.

This week, we’ll review the Fed exit strategy in more detail…

CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT
30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.5% (3.62% APR)

SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT
30 Year: 5.125% (5.24% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.875% (3.99% APR)

JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 POINT
30 Year: 5.375% (5.49% APR)
10/1 ARM: 4.875% (4.99%)
5/1 ARM: 4.25% (4.37% APR)

DAILY CONSUMER-FRIENDLY COMMENTARY

Full website: www.TheBasisPoint.com

Follow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thebasispoint

‘Like’ on Facebook: www.facebook.com/thebasispoint

Scenarios assume full doc pricing on single family home purchase loans for borrower with 740 FICO score or greater, at least 20% equity (unless FHA), and 6-12 months reserves left over after close (retirement assets counted at 60% of value for reserves). Better or worse rates apply to specific client profiles. Better rates are available using tax deductible points. ARM rates adjust the first month after initial fixed period shown, and once per year thereafter until year 30. Adjusted rate calculated by adding 2.25% margin to 1yr LIBOR index at time of adjustment. At first adjustment LIBOR+margin cannot exceed start rate+5%, subsequent yearly adjustments can never be greater than 2% per year, total of all adjustments for 30yr life of loan can never exceed start rate+5%. This is not a loan commitment nor a loan guarantee, rates based on loan amount ranges shown and rates available at the time of production. Rates subject to change without notice. California Department of Real Estate license #01376428. NMLS # 313803. Equal Housing Lender.

Julian D. Hebron
Vice President, Mortgage Consultant
RPM Mortgage
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
office: 415.701.2638
cell: 415.250.1050
eFax: 415.701.2688
About: www.rpm-mtg.com/julian
Blog: www.TheBasisPoint.com
DRE #01376428, NMLS #313803

WeeklyBasis 3/26/11: Rates Likely Up 2nd Week

Rates ended last week up .125% after being even for three weeks. Poor new and existing home sales, rattled consumers, and the Portugal flare-up in Europe’s debt crisis last week would normally cause rates to drop as mortgage bonds rally. But bonds lost ground as investors moved to stocks, pushing the S&P 500 up 2.7% to 1313.80, the biggest weekly gain in two months.

Stocks shook off worries about Japan’s post-quake aftermath and violence in Libya as AT&T’s T-Mobile bid renewed M&A hopes and early Q1 profit reports created a bullish outlook. Earnings reports pick up steam next week and will confirm the speculation. It’s also a huge economic data week. Below is a preview of the week, average rates today, and the rate outlook.

PREVIEW OF INFLATION, JOBS, HOME PRICES
Monday brings February readings on pending home sales, consumer income and spending, and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is expected flat at 0.2% if food and gas prices are excluded. The Fed prefers to look at this “Core” number when analyzing inflation, because they think food and gas are too volatile to count in the short-term. But if the non-core “headline” numbers for the month and year are meaningfully higher, bonds would sell and rates would rise.

Tuesday is the S&P Case Shiller Home Price report for January. December’s report released last month showed nationwide home prices were down 2.4%, the seventh straight monthly loss. A continuation of this trend might help bonds/rates as it would signal a tougher road to recovery.

Wednesday and Friday are the March jobs reports from ADP (+210k new jobs expected vs. +217k Feb) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (+185k new non-farm jobs expected vs. +192k Feb). The 8.9% unemployment rate isn’t expected to move much, but jobless claims have been decreasing for the past month, so Friday’s official BLS number could beat expectations.

Thursday and Friday are two Institute for Supply Management manufacturing surveys, which will most likely show a growing inflationary trend. This applies upward rate pressure because bonds sell on fear of inflation eroding the buying power of a bond’s future income.

Monday through Wednesday we’ll see $99b in new Treasury securities auctioned into bond markets: $35b in 2yr Notes Monday, $35b in 5yr Notes Tuesday, $29b in 7yr Notes Wednesday. Auctions two weeks ago went swimmingly, but new supply may not be so welcome in the heavy data week coming.

BOTTOM LINE
Even if PCE consumer inflation is flat, rising business inflation will be confirmed. This plus $99b in new bond supply, expectations of a hotter job market, and higher earnings/stocks may bring higher rates on net bond selling ahead of Friday’s jobs report.

Rates shouldn’t spike as Europe debt trouble and weak U.S. housing keep a lid on bond selling, but we could see rates up a second straight week.

CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT
30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.5% (3.62% APR)

SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT
30 Year: 5.125% (5.24% APR)
FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)
5/1 ARM: 3.75% (3.87% APR)

JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 POINT
30 Year: 5.25% (5.37% APR)
10/1 ARM: 4.875% (4.99%)
5/1 ARM: 4.125% (4.24% APR)

DAILY CONSUMER-FRIENDLY COMMENTARY

Full website: www.TheBasisPoint.com

Follow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thebasispoint

‘Like’ on Facebook: www.facebook.com/thebasispoint

Scenarios assume full doc pricing on single family home purchase loans for borrower with 740 FICO score or greater, at least 20% equity (unless FHA), and 6-12 months reserves left over after close (retirement assets counted at 60% of value for reserves). Better or worse rates apply to specific client profiles. Better rates are available using tax deductible points. ARM rates adjust the first month after initial fixed period shown, and once per year thereafter until year 30. Adjusted rate calculated by adding 2.25% margin to 1yr LIBOR index at time of adjustment. At first adjustment LIBOR+margin cannot exceed start rate+5%, subsequent yearly adjustments can never be greater than 2% per year, total of all adjustments for 30yr life of loan can never exceed start rate+5%. This is not a loan commitment nor a loan guarantee, rates based on loan amount ranges shown and rates available at the time of production. Rates subject to change without notice. California Department of Real Estate license #01376428. NMLS # 313803. Equal Housing Lender.

Julian D. Hebron
Vice President, Mortgage Consultant
RPM Mortgage
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
office: 415.701.2638
cell: 415.250.1050
eFax: 415.701.2688
About: www.rpm-mtg.com/julian
Blog: www.TheBasisPoint.com
DRE #01376428, NMLS #313803

WeeklyBasis 3/20/11: Rates In No-Fly Zone

[Full story/images: http://www.thebasispoint.com/?p=8353]

Despite big intraday fluctuations of +/-.25%, rates ended last week even for the third straight week. WeeklyBasis predicted rates would be up slightly on higher U.S. business inflation, perception that Europe’s debt crisis seems more contained, and less North Africa/Middle East turmoil than expected—all but the last point happened, which is why investors were net buyers of mortgage bonds, keeping rates low.

The UN declared a no-fly zone over Libya and authorized a coalition including the U.S., Britain, France, Italy, Canada, Belgium, and Qatar to help defend pro-democracy rebels against Muammar Gaddafi who has been battling their political uprising with lethal force. Fighting rages there which can keep rates low as investors stick to safe bond bets, but less Japan radiation fearplus AT&T’s $39b bid for T-Mobile may cause rates to rise as investors shake off uncertainty and sell bonds in search of higher yielding assets this week. Also markets will see the latest home sales data and start pondering post-QE2 strategies, both of which are previewed below.

The National Association of Realtors will release February existing home sales Monday. Even if there’s an up-trend afterJanuary’s annual gain of 5.3%, many market participants believe the NAR’s data is overstated by about 20%.

Tuesday’s markets will see if the new home sales down-trend will continue in February following January’s annual loss of 18.6%. Housing oversupply is an obvious issue, and taken with last week’s report that housing starts were down 22.5% in February—biggest monthly drop in 27 years—it tells markets that existing housing stock is enough and new supply could suffer.

Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data may confirm an improving employment trend, which would cause upward rate pressure.

Friday is the third of three 4Q2010 GDP reports, and is expected to come in at 2.9% which is in line with the 2.8% second reading. This shouldn’t move markets much unless there are consumer inflation signals in personal consumption expenditures.

And if Libya plus Japan fear factors start to subside over the next week, the June 30 end of Fed quantitative easing will take on a bigger role in markets, beginning with a monetary policy speech Friday by Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser.

As of June 30, the Fed will have bought about $2.5 trillion in mortgage and Treasury securities for 2.5 years.

Rates are certainly in a “no-fly” zone right now, but they could take off when the largest bond buyer since January 2009 stops buying. As we head into the last quarter of the 2.5-year QE campaign, this will be the most important market topic.

CONFORMING RATES ($200,000 to $417,000) 0 POINT

30 Year: 4.875% (4.99% APR)

FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)

5/1 ARM: 3.375% (3.49% APR)

SUPER-CONFORMING RATES ($417,001 to $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT

30 Year: 5.0% (5.12% APR)

FHA 30 Year: 4.75% (4.84% APR)

5/1 ARM: 4.0% (4.12% APR)

JUMBO RATES ($729,751 to $2,00,000) 1 POINT

30 Year: 5.25% (5.37% APR)

10/1 ARM: 4.75% (4.87%)

5/1 ARM: 3.875% (3.99% APR)

DAILY CONSUMER-FRIENDLY COMMENTARY

Full website: www.TheBasisPoint.com

Follow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thebasispoint

‘Like’ on Facebook: www.facebook.com/thebasispoint

Scenarios assume full doc pricing on single family home purchase loans for borrower with 740 FICO score or greater, at least 20% equity (unless FHA), and 6-12 months reserves left over after close (retirement assets counted at 60% of value for reserves). Better or worse rates apply to specific client profiles. Better rates are available using tax deductible points. ARM rates adjust the first month after initial fixed period shown, and once per year thereafter until year 30. Adjusted rate calculated by adding 2.25% margin to 1yr LIBOR index at time of adjustment. At first adjustment LIBOR+margin cannot exceed start rate+5%, subsequent yearly adjustments can never be greater than 2% per year, total of all adjustments for 30yr life of loan can never exceed start rate+5%. This is not a loan commitment nor a loan guarantee, rates based on loan amount ranges shown and rates available at the time of production. Rates subject to change without notice. California Department of Real Estate license #01376428. NMLS # 313803. Equal Housing Lender.

Julian D. Hebron
Vice President, Mortgage Consultant
RPM Mortgage
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
office: 415.701.2638
cell: 415.250.1050
eFax: 415.701.2688
About: www.rpm-mtg.com/julian
Blog: www.TheBasisPoint.com
DRE #01376428, NMLS #313803

Will your condo sell?


Percentage of Total Sales
In the past 12 months, more Condo sales occured in San Francisico, than any other property type. There were a total 1,971 (43.7%) Condo sales, which is an average of 164.25 sales per month. The next most common type of property sold in San Francisco was Single Family Homes (SFR) at 1,771 (39.2%), followed by 2-4 unit buildings and TIC’s, at 8.5%, and 5.8%, respecitively. Although there were more Condo sales in the last 12 months, this is a reversal from 2009. In 2009, there were more SFR sales (2,077) than Condo sales (1,654). With all of the new construction in SOMA, it’s likely that Condo sales will continue to exceed SFR sales moving forward. There were only 20 recorded Lot/Acerage Sales (.4%) in the last 12 months, and the combined value of those sales was $12,487,500. An average of $624,375 per transaction.

SF Properties are selling


Units Sold – Condos & SFR
The combined number of units sold rose at the beginning of last year and peaked in May 2010, at 445 units. From May to September, there was a 32% decline in the total number of sales. Units sold then ticked up slightly through the end of 2010. From December 2010, to January 2011 however, units sold fell 37.4%, and then was ticked up slightly (2.7%) in February. Although there was a significatant decline overall in January and February, the number of Condo units sold was up 10%, when compared to the same period last year. SFR units sold rose at the beginning of last year, and peaked in June 2010, at 190 units. SFR units sold began a slow decline through September, and then subsequently rose until December. There was drop off in sales of SFR at the beginning of this year. When compared to the same period last year, SFR units sales were down 8%. This corresponds with the change in the percentage of total sales, where Condo sales overtook SFR sales this year, for the largest percentage of the transactions in San Francisco.

The fourth quarter 2010 results for the First Republic Prestige Home Index

Luxury Home Values Rise Slightly In Fourth Quarter

Prices Increase Modestly In Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco

SAN FRANCISCO — Luxury home values increased in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the third quarter, according to the First Republic Prestige Home Index™ by First Republic Bank, a leading provider of private banking and wealth management services.

In the quarter ended December 31, 2010, the Index indicated the following:

  • Los Angeles area values rose 0.6% from the third quarter of 2010 and declined 2.2% from a year ago. The average luxury home in Los Angeles is now $1.97 million.
  • San Diego area values gained 0.8% from the third quarter of 2010 and increased 0.6% year-over-year. The average luxury home in San Diego is now $1.71 million.
  • San Francisco Bay Area values climbed 1.5% from the third quarter and were up 3.6% from a year ago. The average luxury home in San Francisco is now $2.6 million.

“The fourth quarter of 2010 marked the first time since the second quarter of 2007 that luxury values rose in all three of California’s major metropolitan centers,” said Katherine August-deWilde, President and Chief Operating Officer of First Republic Bank. “The modest increase in the fourth quarter of 2010 was due to low interest rates, a rising stock market and improving consumer confidence.”

First Republic Bank produces the Prestige Home Index each quarter with Fiserv CSW Inc., a leading provider of automated property valuation services and home price metrics to U.S. financial institutions. Historical results of the Index, which has tracked luxury homes since 1985, are accessible at www.firstrepublic.com. First Republic Bank is an active lender in the luxury home market for both primary residences and vacation homes.

Los Angeles Area Values

Luxury home prices in Los Angeles rose for the first time since the second quarter of 2008.

In Beverly Hills, there are a growing number of buyers, but a limited number of luxury homes for sale. “There is a huge amount of pent-up demand and a very tight market,” said Billy Rose of Prudential California Realty in Beverly Hills. “Financially savvy buyers are really looking to buy, but they are constrained by a lack of inventory. Buyers are likely to look back in early 2010 as the bottom, and we’re likely to start seeing appreciation, barring any unusual events.”

In luxury beach communities, buyer interest was growing. “December ended on a high note, and right now the market in Malibu and Pacific Palisades looks strong,” said Carolyn Johnson of Prudential California Realty in Pacific Palisades. “Sellers are pricing their houses reasonably. Cash buyers are snapping up really good properties at really good prices.”

In Santa Barbara, the luxury market was also picking up. “Properties that are well priced are selling fast and closer to asking price,” Joanne Schoenfeld of Santa Barbara Living Real Estate Brokerage. We’re getting more realism on the part of sellers.”

San Diego Area Values

Values in San Diego rose for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2009.

Ann Brizolis of Prudential California Realty in Rancho Santa Fe said the luxury market is becoming more active. “We had a very robust first quarter thus far. The number of sales has increased, and prices are stable. Since January 1, we have had three closings of $4 million to $6 million. Buyers are realizing that the biggest drop has already happened and there is also good inventory.”

However, Chuck Gifford of Prudential California Realty in Rancho Santa Fe said he expects values to continue to soften in luxury communities across the region, even though the market for all cash transactions is heating up. “The pedal is to the metal in San Diego for all-cash buyers. There are buys you just can’t resist.”

San Francisco Bay Area Values

Values in the San Francisco Bay Area posted their third increase in the past four consecutive quarters, although the gains were very modest.

“We’re off to a good start in 2011,” said David Shepardson of Coldwell Banker in San Francisco. “It is shaping up to be a pretty strong year because of low inventory and the fact there are quite a few buyers out there. It’s also apparent very quickly that if the property is overpriced, it will sit there.”

On the Peninsula south of San Francisco, the fourth quarter was unexpectedly strong. “In the past two years, we only had two sales over $6 million in Woodside and Portola Valley,” said Wendy McPherson of Coldwell Banker in Woodside. “In the fourth quarter of last year, we had six sales over $6 million all the way up to $15 million. All of sudden people have their confidence back.”

In the Marin County, the market was also brightening. “This is the year we’re going to see a very good recovery,” said Olivia Decker of Decker Bullock Sotheby’s International Realty in Mill Valley. “We had three months of good sales from December through February. This is encouraging because it is winter, and we’re not even in the spring buying season yet. The market is definitely much better.”

About The First Republic Prestige Home Index

The First Republic Prestige Home Index™ is the first statistical model of its kind customized to measure changes in homes valued at more than $1 million in key California urban markets. Some common features of luxury homes in the Index: 3,000 to 6,000 square feet, three to six bedrooms, and three to six bathrooms. San Francisco Bay Area properties include a crosssection of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside. Properties in Los Angeles represent a cross-section of luxury homes in Arcadia, Beverly Hills, Calabasas, La Cañada Flintridge, Encino, Los Angeles, Malibu, Marina del Rey, North Hollywood, Pacific Palisades, Pasadena, Playa del Rey, Santa Monica, Studio City and the West Los Angeles enclaves of Bel Air, Brentwood and Westwood. San Diego properties represent a cross-section of luxury homes in Carlsbad, Coronado, Del Mar, Encinitas, La Jolla, La Mesa, Poway, Rancho Santa Fe, San Diego and Solana Beach. In producing the Index, Fiserv CSW Inc. draws upon its economic database and years of experience in tracking single-family home values; collects and cross-checks data from multiple sources; achieves a weighted balance of validation elements such as repeat sales, comparable sales, and physical home characteristics; and combines this with First Republic’s extensive local market knowledge.

About First Republic Bank

First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) and its subsidiaries provide private banking, private business banking and private wealth management. Founded in 1985, First Republic specializes in exceptional, relationship-based service offered through preferred banking or wealth management offices primarily in San Francisco, Palo Alto, Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, Newport Beach, San Diego, Portland, Boston, Greenwich and New York City. First Republic offers a complete line of banking products for individuals and businesses, including deposit services, as well as residential, commercial and personal loans. More information is available on the Bank’s website at http://www.firstrepublic.com.

About First Republic Private Wealth Management

First Republic Private Wealth Management is the investment management, trust and brokerage group of First Republic Bank. First Republic Private Wealth Management offers objective advice and fully customized solutions with the same level of exceptional client service that has been the hallmark of First Republic Bank for more than 25 years. First Republic has the flexibility to provide individuals, families, businesses, endowments, schools and non-profit organizations with appropriate choices that responsibly meet a client’s specific investment objectives.

Contact:
Greg Berardi
Blue Marlin Partners
(415) 239-7826
Email Greg Berardi