Choos vs. Condo: The Dilemma

February 7th, 2012 by Katy Dinner

That is the question today’s house hunters are asking themselves as they contemplate a move. If city life has got you living the high life, renting may be a more lifestyle-friendly option. How can you determine what is right for you? Here are four factors that you should consider:

  1. Your Platinum Amex is literally weighing you down: You have a closet full of Fluevlogs or Choos and credit score of 540. If your finances are stretched too thin, you are not ready to own. Just because FHA-insured loans allow for a much smaller down payment, it doesn’t mean buying is a smart decision. Simple as that.

    Summer 2012 $750

  1. You have wanderlust: While moving into a new flat is pricey, moving out is often more so. When you purchase a home, you do not pay a fee to the realtor. However, when you sell a home you are obligated to pay the agent’s full fee, which can be up to 6%, plus closing costs, final repairs [lime green walls were a good idea at one point, right?] and moving costs. These expenses can add up, and quickly eat into your investment return–if you stuck around long enough to gain one! So if you are thinking an Eat. Pray. Love. journey in the near future, don’t buy.
  1. Your calculations are incorrect: There are several wonderful tools available online to help you assess your home buying viability. Check out our Renting Vs. Owning page, with a link to a calculator, to see if you measure up. http://863katy.com/renting_vs_owning.php
  1. You still need your landlord to hold your hand:  Let’s face it- leaky roofs, broken dishwashers, and dripping faucets are not only annoyances, but harsh realities of home ownership, and amount to out-of-pocket expenses that you would not incur as a renter. If just the thought of a broken water heater causes heart palpitations, rest easier by leaving the upkeep to someone else. There is nothing wrong with that approach, and there is no rule that says you must own, even if you have the money. Whatever gives you peace of mind is the right choice.
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Posted in 1st Time Home Buyers, For Renters | No Comments »

Rent Board Adjusts Annual Allowable Rent Increase and Interest Payable on Security Deposits

January 26th, 2012 by Lindsey Moses

Just Rented: Waller Street Townhome

Effective March 1, 2012 through February 28, 2013, the allowable annual increase amount is 1.9 percent. In accordance with Rules and Regulations Section 1.12, this amount is based on 60 percent of the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers in the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose region for the 12-month period ending October 31, which was 3.2% as posted in November 2011 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
To calculate the dollar amount of the 1.9 percent annual rent increase, multiply the tenant’s base rent by .019. For example, if the tenant’s base rent is $1,250.00, the annual increase would be calculated as follows: $1,250.00 x .019 = $23.75. The tenant’s new base rent would be $1,273.75 ($1,250.00 + $23.75 = $1,273.75).
The Rent Board also has announced the interest rate payable on security deposits for the 3/1/12 – 2/29/13 period—0.4%.

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Posted in About San Francisco, For Owners & Sellers, For Renters, Investment Properties | No Comments »

WeeklyBasis 12/24: Better Housing News & The Fine Print

December 27th, 2011 by Julian Hebron
 

Rates were up .125% last week, retreating slightly from record lows: 30yr single family home loans to $417k closed at 3.875%.

Below I recap last week’s good (and not so good) economic data, and preview the rate and stock week ahead. Scroll to ‘Bottom Line’ if you’re in a holiday rush. And I hope you get some time to sit back and relax this long Christmas weekend.

RECAP DECEMBER 19-23 MARKET WEEK

Homebuilder Confidence Best Since 2006: The index of homebuilder confidence rose for the third straight month in December to 21. Still a long shot from 50+ mark that signals a healthy market, but it’s the best since April 2006. Here’s how it looks 1985-Present.

Home Construction Jumps: Construction was up 9.3% in November to 685k (seasonally adjusted, annualized). Still below 1.5m needed to keep in line with population growth and scrappage, but highest since April 2010 when homebuyer tax credit boosted production. Excluding that one-time event, construction is highest since October 2008. Here’s the single family vs. multifamily breakdown. Building permits were up 5.7% to 681k, best since March 2010.

Existing Home Sales-Watch This Closely: November’s existing home sales were 4.42m annualized, up 4% in November and up 12.2% since November 2010. This is the highest mark in 10 months and 34% above mid-2010 low point. But NAR also revised 2007-2011 sales down 14%, tarnishing credibility of current numbers. And cancelled deals spiked again: 33% of Realtors reported at least one cancelled contract in November. Same for October, which was up sharply from 18% in September and August, and up from 9% in September 2010. I’ll be watching this EHS dataset, very interesting on many fronts.

Worst New Home Sales Ever?: November’s new home sales were 315k (annualized), 1.6% better than October, 9.8% better than year ago. This is the best since April, but well below the 700k needed for a healthy market, and 2011 looks to be the worst year ever for new home sales. Average November new home sale price: $242,900.

GDP Cut Again: The third of three GDP readings for 3Q20111 was revised down to 1.8%. Second reading was 2%, first reading was 2.5%. Like existing some sales, revisions are moving in the wrong direction.

Good News On Jobs Outlook: Claims for unemployment insurance were 364,000 for week ended December 17, down 4,000 from previous week and the lowest post financial crisis reading so far. Below 400k signals improving jobs picture and the average since 2000 is 390,000. So 1-week and 4-week numbers are trending below this long-term average: good news. More in next week’s preview below.

Inflation Flat, Again: The Fed’s favorited measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), is flat. November’s annual figures were 2.5% total and 1.7% excluding food and energy. Same story with flat monthly and annual PPI and CPI the week before last. November’s annual PPI was 5.7% total and 2.9% excluding food and energy. Annual CPI was 3.4% total and 2.2% excluding food and energy.

PREVIEW DECEMBER 26-30 MARKET WEEK

Next week’s economic calendar is light, but below are noteworthy highlights with rate impacts.

Home Prices Down Again?: Last month, Case Shiller’s September report showed home prices across 20 major U.S. metro areas were down 0.6% since August and down 3.6% since September 2010, breaking a (rather weak) five-month ’20-City’ gain streak. Tuesday’s October report will determine if the monthly figure can reclaim positive territory or not. Either way, rates won’t move much on this data.

Jobless Claims Trend: Rates didn’t rise last week despite declining jobless claims (recap above). Markets will wait for December jobs report January 6, and to see more jobless claims declines–next read this Thursday.

Pending Home Sales: Existing home purchase contracts entered into were up 10.4% in October and up 9.2% since October 2010. November figures are Thursday. This is a leading indicator of existing home sales expected to close in 60 days. But remember stat from above: 33% of Realtors are reporting cancelled existing home sales contracts. Rates don’t typically move on this report.

Stock & Bond Technicals: Looking at stocks, the S&P 500 closed at at 1265, up 3.69% on the week, ending above its 200-day moving average of 1259. Huge change from last week when it closed below 50- and 200-day moving averages, signaling a rally could continue next week. But analyst Robert Sinn warns that last week’s rally was on anemic volume and fails to meet key technical qualifiers for a run higher. As for mortgage bonds (MBS), the 3.5% Fannie Mae coupon—a key benchmark lenders use to price consumer rates—dropped 66 basis points on the week to close at 101.98. This is why rates rose .125%, and this kind of MBS drop would normally mean rates rise more but lenders held the line since MBS moves were (like stocks) on very low volume. MBS are now just 18 basis points above their 50-day moving average, a line that’s been a concrete floor of support even when stocks rally. But downside risk (pushing rates up) exists because MBS dropped below their 25-day moving average to close last week.

Bottom Line: Last week, I said “rates should be even to up .125% as MBS drop a bit and stocks rise a bit” which happened. That makes a two month roll of nailing weekly rate predictions. Now that I’ve said that, I’m sure the streak will be broken! Anyway, next week has little MBS-moving data so stock activity will drive bonds. Sentiment seems to favor a Santa rally for stocks, suggesting rates should be even to up slightly as the 25-day average on MBS is tested.

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Posted in 1st Time Home Buyers, by Julian Hebron, For Home Buyers, For Owners & Sellers, Mortgage Market, National Housing News, New Construction | No Comments »

New Year’s Resolution: Sell Fast & Sell for More

December 12th, 2011 by Katy Dinner

At the beginning of each New Year in San Francisco we experience a “real estate ramp-up”, where we see a large increase in buying and selling activity. This can be partly attributed to the end of the year influx of cash in the forms of year-end bonuses and family gifts. In addition, families often prefer to house-hunt in the first half of the year and move during summer months when their children are out of school. This increase in activity typically leads to a rise in the median sales price beginning in January, through the start of summer.

In 2010 and 2011, Single Family Home (SFH) prices closed at their highest point for the year in June and July, respectively. Condo prices in 2010 and 2011 closed at their highest point for the year in April* and May, respectively. This flurry of activity at the beginning of every year brings more offers, and in turn, faster sales at higher prices. A typical time from listing to receiving an acceptable offer is about 45 to 75 days. Therefore, putting your property on the market in January, February, or March, will typically lead to a faster closing, at the highest price in the yearly cycle.

(*April 2010 was actually the second highest point ($682,500) for the year, as there was another slightly higher peak in November at $685,000).

These considerations are all reinforced by the data over the last two years:

Median Price:

  • In 2010, SFH prices rose 21.25% from $760,000 in January, to $921,500 in June and in 2011, SFH prices rose 23.4% from $710,000 in January, to $876,000 in July.
  • In 2010, Condo prices rose 9.2% from $625,000 in January, to $682,500 in April and in 2011, Condo prices rose 5.1% from $665,000 in January, to $699,000 in May.

Units Under Contract:

  • In 2010, the number of SFH going into contract rose 132.6%, from 86 in January to 200 in April. In 2011, the number of SFH going into contract rose 88.8%, from 98 in January to 185 in May.
  • In 2010, the number of Condos going into contract rose 104.4%, from 138 in January to 282 in April. In 2011, the number of Condos going into contract rose 53.4%, from 163 in January to 250 in March.

Days-on-the-Market:

  • In 2010, the DOM for SFH fell 30.9% from 68 in January to 47 in March, and in 2011, the DOM fell 32% from 75 in January, to 51 in May.
  • In 2010, the DOM for Condos fell 25.6% from 90 in January to 67 in April, and in 2011, the DOM fell 20.5% from 88 in January, to 70 in May.

We have recently seen an increase in the number of buyers in the market, and expect that this will continue into 2012. We also expect to see the traditional “real estate ramp-up” at the beginning of the coming year, so contact us right away if you are considering buying or selling.

Posted in SF RE Market Analysis | No Comments »

Recology recycling, compost and trash pickup – Holiday Schedule

December 1st, 2011 by Katy Dinner

 November 22, 2011

Dear Valued Customer,

We wish you and your family a safe and healthy holiday. Below is our holiday collection schedule.

Collection days will remain the same through the holiday season!
Please continue to place your recycling, composting, and trash bins at the curb on your regular collection day.

Office Closures
Our office will be closed on the following dates: Thursday, November 24 2011, Monday, December 26, 2011 and
Monday, January 2, 2011.

Christmas Tree Collection
Christmas tree collection will take place January 3-7 and January 9-13. Please place clean, unflocked trees next to your bins on your regularly scheduled pickup day. Be sure to remove all tinsel, decorations, plastic bags, stands, and lights. If your tree is more than 6 feet, please cut it in half.

 

Christmas week and New Year’s week:

 

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Dec 25, 2011
Christmas Day
No Collection
Office Closed		 Dec 26, 2011
Regular Collection
Office Closed		 Dec 27, 2011
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Dec 28, 2011
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Dec 29, 2011
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Dec 30, 2011
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Dec 31, 2011
No Collection
Office Closed
Jan 1, 2012
New Years Day
No Collection
Office Closed		 Jan 2, 2012
Regular Collection
Office Closed		 Jan 3, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 4, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 5, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 6, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 7, 2012
Tree Collection
No Collection
Office Closed
Jan 8, 2012
No Collection
Office Closed		 Jan 9, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Closed		 Jan 10, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 11, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 12, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 13, 2012
Tree Collection
Regular Collection
Office Open		 Jan 14, 2012
No Collection
Office Closed

 

Happy Holidays,Recology Sunset Scavenger
www.recologysf.com

 

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Which SF Neighborhoods Have the Most Sales?

November 15th, 2011 by Katy Dinner

Which San Francisco neighborhoods have the most sales? To determine where the most turnover was and how the market has changed since the peak, we took a look at the sales of single unit properties (single family homes and individual condominiums) in select San Francisco real estate districts, including Districts 4,5,7,8,9 (see this map for reference:  http://www.sfrealtors.com/dw_sfarmls_map.html)

  • District 4:  Twin Peaks West (St. Francis Wood & surroundings, including Miraloma Park & Forest Hill)
  • District 5:  Central (Noe Valley, Castro, Inner Mission)
  • District 7:  North (Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina)
  • District 8:  North East (Russian Hill)
  • District 9:  Central East (SOMA including Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights, & South Beach)

Please contact us at our email address below to discuss your interest in in other parts of San Francisco.

As shown by the above graph, we can see that the number of properties sold overall bottomed out in 2009, and recovered a little in 2010.  If the 2011 year-to-date figures hold steady, volume will remain flat.  Overall, we can estimate that the volume of transactions will remain 18% lower than five years ago.  What can we learn from this?

San Francisco is more fortunate than Southern California and the rest of the country in that there are far fewer distressed properties for sale.  How are people holding out?  It seems that we are in a cash- and equity-rich environment, especially given the challenges in the mortgage financing arena.  Also, many current owners are choosing to remodel and/or simply hold instead of trading up their property.  We can tell this by looking at the number of withdrawn & expired listings for the same neighborhoods over the same time period, which has overall remained steady over the past three years.  We can infer that the most desirable properties are being snapped up by cash buyers, but the rest are not receiving offers which current owners are willing to accept.  Given how much prices rose, those owners in the middle of the market are choosing the hold and/or remodeling path instead rather than take a loss.

Most of the sales activity has taken place in District 5 and District 9.  They are no longer alternative to neighborhoods to the north of market San Francisco.  They are destinations demanding often demanding a higher price per square foot.  District 5 appears to be more transitional in that the demographics are changing as people move out to follow jobs and schools.  District 9 has become the focus of many first time buyers, second homes and also a great location for “empy-nesters” coming back to the city.

To learn more about trends in the SF real estate market, email us at Team@KatyDinner.com, or call our office at 415.863.5289.

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Posted in 1st Time Home Buyers, About San Francisco, Castro, For Home Buyers, For Owners & Sellers, Neighborhood Focus, Noe Valley, Pacific Heights, Potrero Hill, Russian Hill, SOMA, South Beach | No Comments »

The Cost of a Bathroom in San Francisco

November 7th, 2011 by Katy Dinner

 

On average, over the last 6 years, 1.5 bath condos sold for approximately 10.8% more than single bath condos, and 2 bath condos sold for approximately 21% more. In other words, based on the average sales price over the last 6 years, a 1.5 bath condo sold for an average of $77,000 more than a single bath condo, and a 2 bath condo sold for approximately $150,000 more than a single bath condo.

So if you’re considering remodeling your condo, is worth it to add an additional bathroom?

The most important factor in making the decision to add a bathroom is to consult with a trusted advisor. If you contact us early on in the process, we can help you consider all of the factors affecting your neighborhood and help you determine the resale value after adding an extra bath. Why contact us?

We hear what Buyers say about remodels and can guide you in the right direction.
We can consult with you on how to work with contractors and make recommendation to minimize change orders.

Here are some key factors to keep in mind when deciding to remodel your condo:

1) Be careful not to over-improve. Location, size and type of property can cap your selling price, so ask us about values in your neighborhood. If you paid $850,000 for your condo and your bathroom is going to cost $75,000, a remodel would make sense if properties in your neighborhood max out at $950,000. However, making changes in middle of the process might end up costing you more than you planned. If you are going to exceed the property cap for your neighborhood, make sure you are doing the remodel for yourself and not for resale.

2) Manage the cost of the bathroom finishes (i.e. toilets, sinks, shower heads, tile, counter tops, etc.). Most designer finishes are fragile, and similar products can be found for a fraction of the cost. Buyers are not always impressed with brand names, unless they’ve done a remodel of their own. Super high-end finishes can usually be substituted with a more industrial, and durable finish that gives an almost identical look.

3) Match the bathroom design with the rest of the house. A fusion of eras and styles can be tricky. If you have a modern home, a claw-foot tub might not be appropriate. If you must have that claw-foot tub in your loft, I strongly recommend that you work with a designer.

4) Function is always the most important aspect of a bathroom, and having a double vanity is a great idea if there’s room. However, people sometimes make mistakes in regards to function. For example, trough sinks are popular now, but consider the following downsides:

· In 5 years a trough sink may look dated.
· It may be difficult for two people to wash their face at the same time.
· Trough sinks take up valuable counter space.

A more functional solution might be to have one sink in the middle, with two defined work spaces on each side of the sink. With the addition of a dueling mirror solution and drawers, the space becomes much more useable.

5) If you are going to add a full bath, try to make it an en-suite to the master bedroom. The primary reason people desire a second bathroom is privacy. If the additional bathroom is upstairs and the public spaces are downstairs, this is less of a concern. However, if your property is on a single level, you may want to try to have the new bathroom located off a bedroom instead of the hallway.

If you are considering a bathroom remodel, contact us for an analysis specific to your neighborhood and property type.

Note: We estimated the cost of a bathroom, by comparing the average price difference between 2-bedroom condos with 1 bath, and those with 1.5 or 2 baths. By choosing a sample of 2-bedrooms, we narrowed the range of square footage and price. The larger square footage condos are more likely to have two (or more bathrooms), and are also more likely to have 3-bedrooms. Since these condos sell for significantly more than 2-bedroom properties, we excluded them from this analysis. We define a full bath as having a shower or tub (or any combination of the two), a sink (or two) and a toilet. A half bath has a sink and a toilet, and a quarter bath has a second toilet and shared sink with a full bath. Data was obtained from the SFARMLS, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

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Posted in About San Francisco, SF RE Market Analysis | No Comments »

WeeklyBasis 11/5: Rates Holding Near Record Lows

November 7th, 2011 by Julian Hebron

 

Rates were down .125% last week, ending .125% above record lows last hit October 3. But we did touch those record lows of 3.875% zero points (on single family home loans to $417k) briefly during Tuesday’s trading.

Below I recap last week, preview what’s coming next week, and remind consumers how to lock record rate lows that come and go in minutes. NOTE: Bond/rate markets closed Friday, November 11 for Veteran’s Day.

RECAP OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4 MARKET WEEK
Manufacturing: The Institute for Supply Management October manufacturing index was 50.8, with 50 as dividing line between expansion and contraction. September was 51.6. Good news: 27 months of growth. Bad news: barely growing.

Fed AND European Central Bank Meetings: No surprises from the Fed: overnight bank-to-bank rates near zero and they’ll continue reinvesting proceeds from mortgage holdings into new mortgage bonds to keep longer-term rates low. Europe’s Fed equivalent, now led by Mario Draghi, cut their one-week bank-to-bank rates from 1.5% to 1.25% to provide extra liquidity amidst debt crisis.

Jobs Report: 80k non-farm jobs were created in October. Weak report even with September revised from 103,000 to 158,000 and August revised from 57,000 to 104,000. About 2.3m jobs were created since an employment trough in February 2010, but there are still 6.47m fewer jobs than the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Over the past 12m, about 125,000 new jobs were created per month: not enough to keep pace with population growth.

PREVIEW NOVEMBER 7-11 MARKET WEEK
Here are next week’s economic calendar highlights with rate impacts:

Greece/Europe: Rates and stocks rose after the Oct 27 EU deal saying private Greek bond investors must take 50% writedowns. This was one condition of the next EU/IMF bailout payment Greece needs within 30 days to stay afloat. Another condition is ongoing austerity: pay cuts and tax hikes. So last week Greek prime minister George Papandreou said he wanted to let his people vote on austerity measures—as though they have a choice. The result: rates dropped again as U.S. mortgage bonds rallied and stocks sold. This up-down rate (and stock) trend will continue as the Greek charade continues.

Treasury Auctions: $72 billion in new Treasury debt will be auctioned into markets as follows: $32b 3yr Notes Tuesday, $24b 10yr Notes Wednesday, $16b 30yr bonds Thursday. Demand for these auctions, especially the 10yr and 30yr maturities, can dictate the mood in mortgage bond trading, but rates should remain even on auctions as U.S. debt remains a safe haven.

Consumer/Real Estate Themed Earnings: Another big earnings week with lots reports that will give a reading on consumers and real estate, including: Priceline.com, Sotheby’s, Dish Networks, Toyota, Vodafone, Anheuser Busch InBev, General Motors, HSBC, Macy’s, General Growth Properties, Ralph Lauren, Wendy’s, Cisco, Lionsgate Entertainment, Viacom, Disney, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, DR Horton.

Jobless Claims: This is a weekly report Thursdays. Claims for unemployment insurance were 397k last week, below the 400k threshold considered to signal an improving jobs picture. Still the 4-week average is 406k, so next week would have to continue the trend. Unless Thursday’s number is meaningfully below last week’s mark, rates will be even.

Technical Trading Factors: Looking at stocks, the S&P 500 closed last week at 1253, below the 200 day moving average they topped the week before. Charts suggest a trading range of 1215 to 1285 near term. It’s a broad range but volatility this year warrants it. The theme is similar for mortgage bonds—namely the 3.5% Fannie Mae coupon most lenders use to price consumer rate sheets. They closed the week well above their 50 day moving average, suggesting rates could move a bit lower. But the stock/bond reverse correlation is critical here. The volatility on both sides will continue as investors shift back and forth.

Bottom Line For Rates: Going into last week I said the week would be key to determine whether rates rise near-term or hold this volatile .25%-above-record-low range we’d been in since October 7. Now, record lows (see paragraph 1) seem feasible to touch again given technical trading factors noted above. Next week is a slow economic week so Europe will be the main theme, which means continued extreme volatility. So as I’ve been saying for several weeks, read the post below to understand how to capture the lows.

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Posted in by Julian Hebron, For Home Buyers, For Owners & Sellers, Guest Bloggers, Mortgage Market, National Housing News | No Comments »

WeeklyBasis 10/29: Jobs, Fed, ECB Center Stage

October 31st, 2011 by Julian Hebron

 

Rates were even to end last week after +/- .25% daily swings, and are still up .25% from all-time record lows set October 3-4. Another huge week ahead: Fed and ECB rate meetings, October jobs report, lots more earnings, and Europe’s debt crisis slogs on.

Below I recap last week, then preview what’s coming. And please note: you can see if you qualify now for HARP II, the new refi plan for underwater homeowners, but loans won’t be made until November 15 at the earliest.

RECAP OCTOBER 24-28 MARKET WEEK
Home Prices: Case Shiller’s reported home prices rose 0.2% July to August, the fifth straight monthly gain but a tiny gain. Prices are down 3.8% since August 2010 and stuck at 2003 levels. So: Is owning a home smart?

GDP: The first of three 3Q2011 GDP readings showed the economy grew at 2.5%, compared to 1.3% for 2Q and 0.4% for 1Q.

Europe Debt Deal: Rates rose Thursday on news of the EU debt deal but reversed Friday as skepticism grows. Next week’s preview below.

Consumer inflation: The Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), was within their 2% annual cap. They focus on ‘Core’ which excludes food and energy prices. From Sept 2010 to Sept 2011, all-inclusive PCE was 2.9% and Core was 1.6%. Inflation ok for now.

PREVIEW OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4 MARKET WEEK
Here are next week’s economic calendar highlights with rate impacts:

Manufacturing: Tuesday is the Institute for Supply Management October manufacturing report. September was 51.6 with 50 as dividing line between expansion and contraction. Good news: 26th months of growth. Bad news: barely growing. Also, manufacturing is weak as measured by two other October surveys: Philly Fed (PA) was 8.7, up from September’s -17.5, the first positive in 3 months. Empire State (NY) was -8.48, fifth straight monthly contraction. For PA/NY surveys, 0 is line between growth/contraction. ISM shouldn’t be a blowout number so rates even.

Fed AND European Central Bank Meetings: The Fed’s meets two days with a policy announcement Wednesday. Rates dropped after their September 21 meeting because they recommitted to mortgage bond buying (not QE!). The Fed is unlikely to surprise markets, but Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting is huge: the first with new ECB President Mario Draghi (bio). His stance on ECB policy and EU debt crisis is key. Rates even to down on Fed meeting. Rates are wild card for ECB meeting.

Jobs Report: Markets expect Friday’s jobs report to show 88k-100k new jobs created in October and unemployment to hold at 9.1%. The economy added 103k new jobs in September, plus August was revised from zero to 57,000 jobs created, and July was revised from 85k to 127k. I think this one will be close to consensus. If so, rates even.

Europe Debt Crisis: Besides Thursday’s ECB meeting, there’s a G20 Summit Thursday and Friday. Both may elaborate on last week’s debt deal, which helped stocks and hurt rates. Another wild card for rates.

Corporate Earnings: Another big earnings week including reports from Pfizer, Kraft, Nissan, Honda, Comcast, Clorox, Mastercard, AIG, Unilever, Credit Suisse, Anadarko, Time Warner, News Corp, Sony, LinkedIn.

Technical Trading Factors: Last Thursday, the S&P 500 broke clearly above it’s 200 day moving average of 1274 for the first time since August 2, and closed at 1285 Friday. Also Thursday, mortgage bonds—namely the 3.5% Fannie Mae coupon most lenders use to price consumer rate sheets—dropped clearly below the 50 day moving average they were hugging since October 7. Mortgage bonds regained much of Thursday’s sharp post-EU news losses Friday, but they’re still below the 50 day moving average.

Bottom Line For Rates: These technical factors suggest stocks and rates could start the week stable, but volatility will remain extreme as politicians and central banks hog center stage. Also the 10yr Note yield, a key benchmark for rate markets, has risen enough (now 2.32%) to create upside rate rate risk near-term. Long-term, a rate spike isn’t warranted by weak global economic conditions. But next week is key to determine whether rates rise near-term or hold this volatile-but-steady range we’ve been in since October 7, which is .25% above record lows.
___
Rate Shopper Must-Read:
How To Shop For A Mortgage

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Posted in by Julian Hebron, For Home Buyers, For Owners & Sellers, Guest Bloggers, Mortgage Market, National Housing News | No Comments »

Do you have to flush twice?

October 29th, 2011 by Katy Dinner

 The full text of a bill is available at www.leginfo.ca.gov.

Sellers Disclosing Water-Conserving Plumbing Fixtures: CAR successfully sponsored a new law, effective January 1, 2012, revising the Transfer Disclosure Statement (TDS) to include a checkbox in Section A for the seller to disclose whether the property has water-conserving plumbing fixtures. The revised TDS also clarifies at the end of Section B that, by January 1, 2017, a single-family residence built on or before January 1, 1994 must generally be equipped with water-conserving plumbing fixtures. If, however, that single-family home is altered or improved on or after January 1, 2014, the water-conserving plumbing fixtures must be a condition of final permit approval. Water-conserving plumbing fixtures are low-flow toilets, shower heads, and faucets under section 1101.3 of the California Civil Code. CAR intends to release a revised TDS form in November 2011 to comply with this law. Senate Bill 837.

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Posted in Disclosures and Laws | No Comments »
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